Poverty Projection Using a Small Area Estimation Method:
Evidence from Vietnam

Nguyen Viet Cuong

Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 39, Issue 3, pp. 368-82


For poverty monitoring and evaluation, one needs poverty estimates at the different disaggregation levels. The prediction of poverty trend is also of interest for policy makers as well as researchers. This paper presents a method – that is based on a small area estimation method of Elbers et al. (2003) – to project a map of disaggregated poverty measures in the future. This method is applied to project a poverty map in rural Vietnam for the year 2008 using the 2006 Rural, Agricultural and Fishery Census and the 2004 and 2006 Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys.

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