{"id":2391,"date":"2015-12-31T14:28:41","date_gmt":"2015-12-31T12:28:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/?p=2391"},"modified":"2021-08-10T14:29:29","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T12:29:29","slug":"binh-thuong-hoa-chinh-sach-tien-te-cua-fed-va-ham-y-cho-viet-nam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/binh-thuong-hoa-chinh-sach-tien-te-cua-fed-va-ham-y-cho-viet-nam\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a FED v\u00e0 h\u00e0m \u00fd cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam"},"content":{"rendered":"

Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 theo s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i t\u1eeb \u1ee6y ban th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf Li\u00ean bang (Federal Open Market Committee – FOMC) thu\u1ed9c C\u1ee5c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef li\u00ean bang Hoa K\u1ef3 (FED) trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ng\u00e0y 15-16 th\u00e1ng 12\/2015. FED d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 li\u00ean bang trong m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo \u0111\u1ebfn khi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf kh\u1ecfe m\u1ea1nh. Vi\u1ec7c b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u00ean nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i, bao g\u1ed3m Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 so\u1ea1n th\u1ea3o b\u1ea3n t\u00f3m t\u1eaft ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nh\u1eb1m \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 g\u1ed3m c\u00f3 TS. L\u00ea H\u1ed3ng Giang (TGM Australia), TS. Nguy\u1ec5n Di\u1ec7u H\u01b0\u01a1ng (Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf), TS. Ph\u00f9ng \u0110\u1ee9c T\u00f9ng (Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Mekong), TS. Andreas Hauskrecht (\u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Indiana), TS. \u0110inh Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Hinh (\u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Johns Hopkins), v\u00e0 TS. Tr\u1ea7n Ng\u1ecdc Anh (\u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Indiana). V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 31\/12\/2015, Vi\u1ec7n Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (B\u1ed9 K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Mekong t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o nh\u1eb1m gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u b\u1ea3n t\u00f3m t\u1eaft ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 tham kh\u1ea3o \u00fd ki\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean tham d\u1ef1. Cu\u1ed9c h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee7 tr\u00ec b\u1edfi \u00f4ng Cao Vi\u1ebft Sinh – Chuy\u00ean gia cao c\u1ea5p, C\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n tham d\u1ef1 g\u1ed3m c\u00f3: B\u1ed9 ph\u1eadn th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a B\u00e1o c\u00e1o Ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb X\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, T\u1ed5 chuy\u00ean gia t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n c\u1ee7a Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng, T\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i v\u0129 m\u00f4 t\u1eeb B\u1ed9 K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, B\u1ed9 C\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

Bu\u1ed5i h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o g\u1ed3m c\u00f3 3 ph\u1ea7n: Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, C\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Gi\u1edbi thi\u1ec7u nh\u00f3m S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn Vi\u1ec7t Nam<\/p>\n

\"feds-vnIMGP7609-20160112\"<\/a><\/p>\n

B\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ed9i th\u1ea3o, TS. Nguy\u1ec5n Di\u1ec7u H\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng sau khi M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn Vi\u1ec7t Nam ho\u1eb7c c\u00f3 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf – x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n

\"feds-vnIMGP7631-20160112\"<\/p>\n

Ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn, TS. L\u00ea H\u1ed3ng Giang tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 quan s\u00e1t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

TS. Tr\u1ea7n Ng\u1ecdc Anh \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00e1i qu\u00e1t b\u1ed1n k\u00eanh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00e0 qua \u0111\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t hai h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i ch\u00ednh cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 (i) gi\u1eef l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ec3 VND tr\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 (ii) t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1. K\u1ebft th\u00fac ph\u1ea7n 1, TS. Tr\u1ea7n Ng\u1ecdc Anh \u0111\u01b0a ra 5 khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb cho Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 khi n\u00f3 \u1edf \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ho\u1eb7c ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o hay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 tr\u1ee3 gi\u00fap t\u1eeb IMF v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c; th\u1ee9 hai, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chi ph\u00ed \u2013 l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch; th\u1ee9 ba, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ea7n linh ho\u1ea1t, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, chi ph\u00ed \u2013 l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c; th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ea7n h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebft Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 s\u1ebd ki\u00ean quy\u1ebft b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f3; cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, khi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, c\u1ea7n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n quy \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng cho ph\u00e9p g\u1eedi ti\u1ec1n \u1edf ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng b\u1eb1ng USD \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00f3a, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, gi\u1ea3m vay, t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u0129 m\u00f4.<\/p>\n

\"feds-vnIMGP7715-20160112\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u1ede ph\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo, TS. Tr\u1ea7n Ng\u1ecdc Anh tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u0129 m\u00f4 trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. \u00d4ng \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Xuy\u00ean Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (TPP) \u2013 m\u1ed9t \u201cc\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1eeda s\u1ed5\u201d cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam, trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1ch t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf khi tham gia TPP, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 d\u1ecbch l\u00ean tr\u00ean trong chu\u1ed7i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng qua lu\u1ed3ng \u201cknow-how\u201d. Ba s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00f4ng Tr\u1ea7n Ng\u1ecdc Anh \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch lu\u1ed3ng \u201cknow-how\u201d l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1ea1t c\u00e1n b\u1ed9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh t\u1ebf, cho ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i thu\u00ea \u0111\u1ea5t, c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n \u0111a qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh ph\u1ea7n tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y ch\u00ednh, c\u00e1c kh\u00e1ch m\u1eddi tham d\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn v\u00e0 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn, nh\u01b0 ban h\u00e0nh quy \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh kh\u00f4ng cho ph\u00e9p g\u1eedi ti\u1ec1n b\u1eb1ng USD c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam hay kh\u00f4ng khi \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u quy \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh, c\u00f3 n\u00ean \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ea1m ph\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau hay kh\u00f4ng, m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ki\u1ec1u h\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, ph\u00e1 gi\u00e1 VND c\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam khi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u Vi\u1ec7t Nam ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t,\u2026<\/p>\n

\"feds-vnIMGP7676-20160112\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh t\u1ecda \u0111\u00e0m \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ee3i m\u1edf nhi\u1ec1u \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 suy ng\u1eabm cho h\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong c\u1ea3 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. C\u00e1c h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tham d\u1ef1 mong \u0111\u1ee3i trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai nh\u00f3m \u201cS\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn Vi\u1ec7t Nam\u201d s\u1ebd t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u00eam th\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1 t\u00e0i thi\u1ebft th\u1ef1c gi\u00fap \u00edch cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 theo s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i t\u1eeb \u1ee6y ban th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf Li\u00ean bang (Federal Open Market Committee – FOMC) thu\u1ed9c C\u1ee5c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef li\u00ean bang Hoa K\u1ef3 (FED) trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ng\u00e0y 15-16 th\u00e1ng 12\/2015. FED d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd t\u0103ng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 li\u00ean bang trong m\u1ed9t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2392,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[31],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2391"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2391"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2391\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2394,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2391\/revisions\/2394"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mdri.org.vn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}